PM Starmer this morning made a speech regarding Greenland, which has become the unexpected flashpoint in a fast-moving transatlantic dispute. One of his comments of note was “households, small businesses and working people are those that ‘feel it first’ when supply chains fracture” — but the supply-chain consequences for Europe and ALL businesses have escalated sharply because as we now know, it’s no longer just about security posture in the High North.
This weekend President Trump has threatened new tariffs on imports from a group of European allies as leverage linked to ‘acquiring’ Greenland. The measures described include a 10% tariff from 1 February 2026 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, with the tariff escalating to 25% by June 2026 if demands are not met.
EU leaders have warned of a “dangerous downward spiral,” and senior European figures have said the EU would retaliate if the tariffs proceed.
This matters to European supply chains for one big reason: tariffs create immediate, mechanical cost shock, while Greenland-related tension adds route risk, insurance risk, and digital-infrastructure risk — a nasty “price + reliability” double hit. For this article we have left the more dramatic military action and NATO aside as hopefully this will be avoided, leaving this a tariffs and supply chain issue. Let’s explore.
the Tariffs lever impacts supply chains first
The supply-chain implications have currently been mostly second-order – higher security posture in the North Atlantic, more military signalling, and heightened attention on subsea cables and critical infrastructure. This is of course all a scary thought, but probably a way off before we ever get to that.
But now, the trade lever has been pulled and businesses and supply chains are once again on high alert.
If the reported tariff schedule is implemented, the consequences for supply chains begin before February:
- Order timing distortions: importers rush shipments ahead of tariff start dates, then face a hangover period of reduced demand and unstable forecasts.
- Quote validity collapses: landed-cost models become unreliable, and “subject to tariff change” becomes the default caveat.
- Contract friction: customers dispute who pays (seller vs buyer), especially where Incoterms and “change in law” clauses are vague.
EU officials are also discussing countermeasures — including, potentially, the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), which was designed to respond to economic coercion and can include restrictions that go beyond goods, such as services and public procurement access.
That matters because retaliation doesn’t just “mirror” tariffs. It can spill into services trade, where the US often has strengths — and services are embedded everywhere in supply chains (finance, insurance, cloud, tech platforms, professional services).
Why Greenland still matters operationally
Greenland
Even if you ignore the politics, Greenland’s geography sits beside a core piece of Europe’s trading system: the North Atlantic corridor between Greenland–Iceland–UK. Defence and security institutions regularly highlight the strategic importance of this region for transatlantic lines of communication — and those lines underpin trade confidence.
PM Starmer this morning re-iterated his stance in both his view of the use of tariffs against allies being ‘wrong’, and also that a US/UK relationship matters ‘profoundly’ to the UK. Can both views of the UK hold in a Trump led world?
It’s been cited often that due to climate change the sea routes in the high north will require greater attention as they open up. As well as strategic competition there is also the “invisible” dependency: subsea cables. The UK Parliament has treated subsea telecoms cables as a national security resilience topic — and any heightened tension that increases risk to undersea infrastructure creates business continuity exposure well beyond shipping.
So Europe’s supply chains are dealing with:
- Tariff shock (cost)
- North Atlantic risk premium (reliability + insurance)
- Digital fragility (visibility + coordination)
Europe-wide supply chain effects: what to expect if the tariffs proceed
Greenland Denmark Maersk
Other than the fact Maersk, one of the largest shipping lines in the world, is Danish, which is a total other conversation, here’s what to expect:
1) Landed cost inflation and margin compression
A 10% tariff (rising further) lands directly in the costs. For high-volume, low-margin categories — think consumer goods, industrial parts, furniture, processed foods — there’s often nowhere to hide. Someone takes it: supplier, importer, customer, or all three.
2) Customs workload spikes and errors increasing
Tariffs trigger:
- re-checking HS codes and origin proofs
- re-validating valuation and assist/royalty rules
- disputes about “substantial transformation” and origin planning
In practice, clearance slowdowns follow, especially when everyone changes behaviour at once.
3) Retaliation risk creates whiplash
Europe has been explicit that retaliation is on the table but so far PM Starmer has kept a cool head for the UK and simply stated retaliatory tariffs are in ‘nobody’s interest’.
Retaliation for the EU is still a possibility and can mean:
- EU tariffs on US-origin inputs that European manufacturers rely on
- restrictions hitting services, procurement, licensing, or market access (if the ACI is used)
Result: companies get hit on both inbound and outbound legs.
4) Capacity distortions across air and ocean
Pre-tariff pull-forward typically increases demand for:
- expedited ocean services
- air freight for high-value SKUs
- warehouse space (bonded and non-bonded)
Then you may see a sudden lull — which can cause carrier blanking, volatility in rates, and planning headaches.
5) Legal uncertainty adds operational uncertainty
Reuters notes the US Supreme Court is considering questions related to presidential tariff powers, adding uncertainty about how quickly trade policy could be changed or challenged.
Supply chains hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news: it’s the constant re-pricing and re-contracting that drains time and cash.
Greenland scenarios on supply chains
Let’s be clear, the UK, US and the EU are intertwined. Whilst we may try to act independently, the shockwaves from any unilateral action from one party alone will be felt loudly between these parties together. As mentioned at the begining we won’t talk about NATO yet as that’s a different conversation. We are simply focusing on tariffs and supply chains. There is alot to consider though. For now, let’s keep on tariff talk.
Scenario A: Tariffs happen, security posture stays “cold”
This is the most likely near-term risk: no conflict, but trade costs rise.
Supply chain behaviour: front-load shipments, reprice contracts, chase alternative sourcing, and build inventory buffers for critical SKUs.
Scenario B: Tariffs + grey-zone disruption in the High North
If tensions expand into cyber, jamming, infrastructure incidents, or heightened maritime security operations, you get cost inflation and schedule unreliability.
Supply chain behaviour: diversify routing options, strengthen digital resilience, increase buffer time and buffer stock for “revenue stopping” items.
Scenario C: Tariffs spiral into a broader transatlantic trade rupture
EU retaliation becomes more expansive (potentially including services/procurement restrictions under the ACI).
This is where supply chains start to behave like it’s a semi-permanent regime shift: re-shoring, near-shoring, and redesigning products to change origin exposure.
De-risking exercises for European supply chains right now
Right now, the smartest move is to get specific with your supply chains. Build a simple “tariff exposure” view of your businesses supply chain — a one-pager you can actually run decisions off. Take every EU/UK ↔ US lane that matters and list your top 50 SKUs by value and volume. Add the HS code, declared origin, the Incoterms (so you know who pays the duty), and the margin headroom.
You need to be able to answer quickly and confidently, “What does a 10% tariff do to us — and what does 25% do?”. This is your risk.
Then fix the thing that always breaks first: contracts. Tariff shocks don’t just inflate cost — they create arguments. Before the next deadline hits, make clear who carries duty and tariff changes including anything applied retroactively. Also how price moves when law or policy changes, and what happens to lead times and service levels when disruption ripples through carriers and borders.
After that, origin and classification. This is where a lot of “surprise” cost and compliance pain lives. Re-check supplier declarations. Re-check classifications where you suspect historic errors. In a politically charged tariff environment, the companies that glide through are the ones who can prove what they’re doing without scrambling for paperwork.
On the operational side, don’t forget the customs tools designed for exactly this kind of moment. Bonded warehousing can protect cashflow timing. Duty deferment can smooth the shock. Simplifications can reduce friction — your brokers instructions, documentation, and audit trail need to be tight. Of course an AEO approved broker (ahem..) would be beneficial :)
Conclusion
All in all, we are at the beginning of what looks like another very volatile period (we’ve been here before right?!). This is par the course for this US administration, where every day brings something new to chew on. President Trump does not often need an off-ramp, so for planning we have to assume the worst case and work our way backwards. The aim right now is to fortify your business with all eventualities, and test them.
At Jordon we are doing exactly the same, operating best practice for any business working in global supply chains – forewarned is forearmed as the saying goes. In conclusion acting now is what matters. We’ll see what happens over the coming weeks and report back should anything significant occur. We would of course, rather hope not.
For advice on customs and operational matters relating to shipping from and to the USA, Europe and the UK, do not hesitate to contact us. We have experts on hand to discuss options regarding your business supply chain strategies that will help your planning.
Until then, let’s just keep watching the news!
Best wishes
Jon