Disclaimer: nobody knows how it will pan out

False news, it’s all the rage. Depending what paper you subscribe to you will get different slants on the latest surveys with various supply chain Managers. In May this year a survey of EU27 supply chain managers reported that 44% are preparing to move some of their supply chain out of the UK as a result of the decision to leave the single market and customs union.

Fast forward to November and the same survey now identifies 63% of EU27 supply chain managers looking to move some of their supply chain out of Britain as a result of Brexit. In the survey 40% of UK companies said they are looking to replace EU suppliers.

Anyone would think we don’t like each other but the reality is a hard Brexit is playing on the fears of businesses, anxious to be seen to do something, but with nothing concrete with which to make a decision.

So we are reduced to companies filling in the gaps and making decisions ahead of any real facts emerging from the UK government. It’s testing times for sure and who can blame them, March 2019 is not far away.

Even though the Brexit negotiating teams promise that progress will be made soon, it will be too late for the numerous businesses who look like they will be deserted by their European partners. A third of companies in the survey said they were unable to prepare for Brexit because of uncertainty over the trading relationships between the two sides.

Any significant change in the economic geography of the UK economy and its supply chains is likely to require adjustments that will take time and slow the economy, the Bank of England has said, because it will involve some redundancies of plant and equipment until new opportunities arise.

There will be new opportunities for sure as a new dawn breaks post Brexit, the question is what will it all look like when we finally reach this hallowed land we’ve been promised?

A penny for your thoughts.